The housing market is currently in a phase of correction, displaying trends that are uncharacteristic of what we typically see during the spring season. Residential sales in Metro Vancouver for April 2025 totaled 2,163, reflecting a significant 23.6% decrease from 2,831 sales recorded in April 2024. This figure is 28.2% below the 10-year seasonal average of 3,014 sales, underscoring a marked slowdown in buyer activity. By property type, detached home sales dropped by 29% to 578, condo sales fell by 20.2% to 1,130, and attached home sales declined by 23.8% to 442. This consistent reduction across all categories suggests that economic uncertainties are prompting buyers to adopt a more cautious approach.
On the supply side, the market is seeing a notable increase in available homes. New listings in April 2025 reached 6,850, a 3.4% decrease from 7,092 in April 2024, but total active listings rose 29.7% to 16,207. This inventory level is the highest since 2014 and 47.6% above the 10-year average of 10,979, indicating a continued shift toward a buyer’s market. The sales-to-active listings ratio stands at 13.8% in April 2025, with detached homes at 9.9%, attached homes at 17.5%, and apartments at 15.7%. Months of supply held steady at 7, partly due to some properties being taken off the market and re-listed at lower prices. It’s also likely that some sellers have withdrawn entirely after being unable to achieve their desired sale price. Neither buyers nor sellers hold a clear advantage.
The benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was $1,184,500 in April 2025, down 1.8% from April 2024 and 0.5% from March 2025. Specifically, detached homes had a benchmark price of $2,021,800, a 0.7% year-over-year decline; apartments were priced at $762,800, down 2.0%; and attached homes stood at $1,102,300, down 2.9%. These modest price reductions suggest that the increased supply is giving buyers more negotiating power, contributing to a stabilization of the market. As Chris Voss, author of Never Split The Difference would say, you don't get what you want in life, you get what you negotiate—and right now, you can negotiate.
BCREA Forecast 2025-2026
BCREA predicts modest growth The BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) provided a provincial forecast for 2025 and 2026, projecting 73,650 MLS unit sales across BC, a 1.1% decline from 74,479 in 2024, with an average price of $972,800, down 0.9% from $981,871. Housing starts are expected to fall by 14.9% to 39,000 units. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2026, with sales projected to rise by 8.8% to 80,150 units, prices increasing by 3.2% to $1,004,000, and housing starts growing by 7.7% to 42,000 units.
In Greater Vancouver, sales are expected to decrease by 1.6% to 26,000 units in 2025, with average prices falling by 2.1% to $1,265,000. The Fraser Valley anticipates a 2.4% drop in sales to 13,500 units and a 0.6% price decrease to $1,032,400. Conversely, Victoria is projected to see a 1.8% increase in sales to 6,700 units and a 1.7% price rise to $990,000.
The broader BC market is influenced by several factors, including economic uncertainties such as US tariffs, which could dampen growth and even push the province toward recessionary conditions. The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts, reducing the overnight rate from 5% to 2.75% and bringing five-year fixed mortgage rates below 4.5%, have lowered borrowing costs. However, buyer hesitation persists, with first-quarter 2025 sales 20% below the long-run average, suggesting that confidence has yet to fully return.
Canada Housing Market Outlook
National housing market outlook Nationally, the Canadian housing market appears to be navigating a period of modest decline, with a potential rebound on the horizon. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its 2025 forecast, projecting 482,673 residential transactions across Canada, a slight 0.02% decrease from 2024, and an average home price of $687,898, down 0.3%. Looking ahead to 2026, CREA anticipates a recovery, with sales rising by 2.9% to 496,487 units and prices increasing by 1.2% to $696,074. The interplay of these dynamics suggests that while 2025 may be a challenging year, the market’s underlying resilience could pave the way for improvement in 2026.
Mark Carney’s housing agenda Following his election victory, Mark Carney is prioritizing housing affordability and supply, with ambitious plans to double annual home construction to 500,000 units over the next decade. Whether the Liberals can achieve even half of that remains to be seen. Experts note potential hurdles, including labor shortages (the Canadian Construction Association estimates a shortfall of one million workers), regulatory fragmentation across provinces, and economic pressures from U.S. tariffs. Central to this strategy is the creation of Build Canada Homes (BCH), a government entity tasked with constructing affordable housing. BCH is expected to provide $25 billion in debt financing, $1 billion in equity financing for prefabricated home builders, and $10 billion for affordable homebuilders.
Other measures include eliminating the GST on new homes priced at or below $1 million for first-time homebuyers, reintroducing the Multiple Unit Rental Building (MURB) tax incentive to encourage rental property development, and implementing the Housing Accelerator Fund to reduce municipal development charges by half for multi-unit housing over five years. These policies aim to streamline regulations and boost supply, but their success hinges on overcoming bureaucratic challenges, as some developers are rightly concerned.
Rental Report April 2025
Rental market showing signs of stabilization According to the rentals.ca National Rent Report for April 2025, after six consecutive months of annual rent declines, Canada’s rental market showed signs of turning a corner. The average asking rent in March 2025 was $2,119, down 2.8% from the previous year but up 1.5% month-over-month, marking the first monthly increase since September 2024. The seasonal rise in demand and slight improvements in affordability likely contributed to this rebound, though the market remains weighed down by an elevated supply of newly completed apartments.
Looking at the five-year trend since March 2020, average asking rents are up 17.8%. Purpose-built rental apartments led this growth with a 35.5% increase, while condo rents remained mostly flat, rising only 0.6%. Among purpose-built units, three-bedroom and studio apartments saw the strongest year-over-year rent growth, while one- and two-bedrooms saw moderate declines. Larger units have seen the sharpest rent increases over five years, with three-bedroom units up nearly 40%.
In British Columbia, rental markets continued their downward trend in March 2025, with several cities hitting multi-year lows. Vancouver, long the country’s most expensive rental market, saw average asking rents for purpose-built and condo apartments fall to $2,822, a 5.7% year-over-year drop and the lowest level in nearly three years. North Vancouver and Langley experienced even steeper declines, down 8.1% and 12.9% respectively. These drops reflect both a softening in demand and an increase in available rental supply, particularly in new purpose-built developments.
Despite the overall cooling, some pockets of BC bucked the trend. Richmond recorded one of the fastest rent increases in the country, rising 6.9% year-over-year, landing it among Canada’s priciest markets alongside Burnaby and Coquitlam. The continued strength in these suburban centres may signal a shift in renter preferences toward slightly more affordable alternatives with good access to transit and amenities. Over the past five years, BC rents remain significantly elevated, up 23.6%, reinforcing affordability challenges across much of the province.
Navigating the cooling housing market The cooling housing market in BC, particularly in Metro Vancouver, suggests that buyers have more options and negotiating power than in recent years. The increased inventory and balanced market conditions could make this an opportune time for those looking to purchase, especially as prices stabilize or slightly decline. However, sellers may need to adjust expectations, as the days of rapid price growth appear to be on hold.
For renters, the softening rental market in Vancouver and other urban centers offers a chance to secure more affordable housing, though vigilance is needed given the recent monthly rent increases. Investors and landlords, meanwhile, may benefit from policy incentives like the MURB tax break, but they should also prepare for a competitive rental market with potentially lower returns in some areas.
The broader economic context, including interest rate trends and potential trade disruptions, will continue to shape the market. The Bank of Canada’s rate cuts have made borrowing more accessible, but global uncertainties could temper buyer and investor confidence. Additionally, Carney’s housing policies, if effectively implemented, could significantly boost supply, potentially easing affordability pressures over time.
